COVID-19 Outbreak: Model-Driven Impact Analysis Comparing Oman and Pakistan
Abstract
Motivated by the rapid spread of COVID-19 all across the globe, we have
performed simulations of a system dynamic epidemic spread model in different
possible situations. The simulation, not only captures the model dynamic of the
spread of the virus, but also, takes care of population and mobility data. The
model is calibrated based on epidemic data and events as they happened. The
simulation results are quite disturbing, indicating that, during a process of strin
gent social distancing and testing strategies, a small perturbation can lead to
quite undesirable outcomes. The simulation results, although consistent in ex
pected outcomes across changing parameters’ values, also indicate a substantial
mismatch with real numbers. An analysis of what can be the reason of this mis
match is also performed. Within these contradictions, a comparative analysis
of COVID-19 outbreak between two geographically close but demographically
very different countries – that is Oman and Pakistan – is performed.
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